Premiership: Chelsea V Manchester United – Tuesday, 1st March All Sports Room

Mar 02 2011

Premiership: Chelsea V Manchester United – Tuesday, 1st March

Posted by Jasper Irvine in Betting Sport Tips

Even though his side cannot successfully defend their Barclay’s Premier League crown unless something miraculous happens between now and the end of the season, Carlo Ancelotti believes pride is at stake on Tuesday night as Chelsea play host to a Manchester United team who appear the most likely to dethrone the reigning but seemingly defenceless Blues.

The Red Devils are four-points clear at the summit after 27 rounds of fixtures, a further 15 ahead of Chelsea who aren’t even guaranteed Champions League football next season. The latter is why Carlo Ancelotti’s men must take something from Tuesday’s night clash, more so than pride, which you could argue they have little left to fight for after a dismal campaign which has seen them fail miserably in their attempts to defend both their Premier League crown and FA Cup title.

Failure to qualify for the Champions League would be a catastrophe for Chelsea, and on the subject of pride, can you imagine what playing in the Europa League would do to their egos? But with just twelve games left on the calendar, finishing outside the top-four is a real possibility. The Blues are two-points adrift of London rivals Tottenham, who currently occupy the fourth and final Champions League berth. Defeat at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday would leave the ball well and truly in Spurs’ court, however victory over one of their main rivals would see them leapfrog the North London club into fourth while it would, or at least should, galvanize a dressing room which has been lifeless for an alarming period of time.

And the omens would point towards a positive outcome for Chelsea, who haven’t lost a league meeting with United at Stamford Bridge for nine years. Moreover, Ji-Sung Park and Wayne Rooney are the only United players to have scored at the Bridge in the previous seven top-flight encounters – Chelsea keeping five clean sheets in their last seven at home against the Premier League kings. Formidable statistics that heavily weigh up in favour of a home triumph, especially as it’s no secret that the Red Devils have struggled to carry their impeccable form at home into their away assignments this season.

In the Premier League this term, United have gone travelling on 13 occasions, and although they were beaten on just one occasion, when going down 2-1 to then bottom-of-the-league Wolves, their record on the road is feeble to say the least. Blackpool, Stoke, West Brom and Wigan are the only four teams to have wilted under the pressure of entertaining the 11-time Premier League champs, while they couldn’t even muster a goal at either Eastlands or White Hart Lane, homes of Man City and Tottenham respectively. So to claim that the Sir Alex’s charges are a tad exposed heading down to the English capital would be a massive understatement.

However, United ran riot at the weekend, throwing a spanner in the works by putting in their most accomplished away performance of the season thus far. We say spanner, it was a small spoon considering they were pitted against the might of Wigan Athletic, who are now rock-bottom, while the Latics did ask half-a-dozen questions of Edwin Van der Saar in the United goal. Had one of either Fernando Torres or Didier Drogba been presented with some of the chances which were bestowed upon a wasteful set of Wigan forwards, then there would have been only one outcome, a unanimous victory for Torres & Co.

The onus is, of course, on Chelsea to not only take the game to their visitors but to record a potentially season-defining win which just might spark a lacklustre Blues outfit into life. But while their record at home to the Red Devils is impressive, overwhelming you might even say, they will kick-off Tuesday’s show-piece on the back of successive home defeats, bitter-tasting ones at that, following a 1-0 reverse to Liverpool in the league before bowing out of the FA Cup on penalties to the other famous Merseysiders, Everton.

So which of the two tickle your fancy? My vote of confidence heads in the direction of the home side, Chelsea, simply because their record against United at Stamford Bridge is imperious. Rarely do the West-Londoner’s fail to turn up when the Sir Alex Ferguson brings his United troops to town.

Of course, Sir Alex’s men were resounding 4-0 winners at the weekend, an ideal momentum builder ahead of such an important match. They were even handed further boosts with news that Wayne Rooney, who was on target twice at the weekend as the temperamental forward continues to relocate the goal trailer, slowly but surely, is in the clear to face Chelsea despite clearly elbowing Wigan’s James McCarthy in the back of the head. But that was the solitary piece of good news for Ferguson, who is without a whole host of players which includes Rio Ferdinand, Anderson and Ji-Sung Park among several others, while experienced midfielder Ryan Giggs is also doubtful.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have a clean bill of health, with manager Carlo Ancelotti even having the luxury of several positive selection dilemmas. There will even be some, the forwards mainly, with a point to prove on Tusday as the competition for places at Chelsea continue to intensify.

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Chelsea

After failing to mastermind any wins in Chelsea’s previous three domestic fixtures, it would appear Carlo Ancelotti is no nearer to knowing what his preferred formation is or who to slot where. As a result, no-one really knows for sure who will start Tuesday’s must-win encounter with United.

The Blues chief did however hint in his pre-match press conference that Nicolas Anelka may drop to the bench with Didier Drogba, fresher than the Frenchman after three successive substitute appearances against Fulham in the league, Everton in the FA Cup and FC Copenhagen in the Champions League, expected to slot into a three-pronged attack alongside Florent Malouda and Fernando Torres.

Other than the offensive merry-go-round, the rest of the team shouldn’t contain any surprise inclusions, with John Obi-Mikel possibly replacing Ramires in midfield, the Brazilian who has been very poor in the high-profile clashes this season for Chelsea.

Centre-back Alex and midfielder Yossi Benayoun are the only definite absentee’s.

Probable line-up: Cech; Cole, Terry, Luiz, Ivanovic; Essien, Ramires, Lampard, Malouda; Drogba, Torres

Manchester United

Sir Alex joked earlier in the week that picking his starting XI for Tuesday’s mouthwatering contest with title-rivals Chelsea as a piece of cake, as it’s simply a case of choosing from the select few who are available.

Jonny Evans, Rio Ferdinand, Owen Hargreaves, Anderson, Ji-Sung Park, Antonio Valencia and Michael Owen are among those who have been ruled out through various injuries.

Welshman Ryan Giggs is a minor doubt although is expected to shrug off the hamstring problem which kept him out of United’s trip to Marseille in Europe a week ago.

As far as the formation goes, some are predicting an old-fashioned 4-4-2, but because it’s at Stamford Bridge I reckon Sir Alex may opt to pack the midfield in the knowledge that Chelsea have struggled to break down teams who put plenty of men behind the ball, before losing their discipline and overcommitting leading to vulnerabilities on the counter.

Wayne Rooney is often deployed as a make-shift winger and could start on the left, especially as Giggs isn’t 100% fit. If this does prove to be the case, Darren Gibson could join Fletcher and Carrick in the middle of the park, with Nani on the wide-right and Dimitar Berbatov or Javier Hernandez roaming about up ton on their lonesome. The Bulgarian would get the tentative vote, after all he is their leading-scorer in the Premier League this season 19 goals, however Hernandez was on target twice at the weekend and the Mexican has certainly given Ferguson some food for thought heading down to London.

Chris Smalling, who has excelled in the wake of Rio Ferdinand‘s absence through injury, is set to prolong his centre-half partnership with captain Nemanja Vidic.

Probable line-up: Van der Saar; Rafael, Smalling, Vidic, Evra; Carrick, Fletcher, Gibson, Nani, Rooney; Berbatov

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Chelsea

Last 5 Matches

Champions League: FC Copenhagen 0-2 Chelsea FA Cup: Chelsea 1-1 Everton (Chelsea LOST 3-2 on penalties) Premier League: Fulham 0-0 Chelsea Premier League: Chelsea 0-1 Liverpool Premier League: Chelsea 2-4 Sunderland

2010/2011 League Statistics

League Position: 5th Win-Draw-Lose: 13-6-7 (Home: 8-2-2) Goal Difference: 46-22 (Home: 24-8) Form: WWWLD (Home: DWDWL) Top Scorer: Didier Drogba (10)

- Chelsea have won just one of their last four matches in all competitions, losing their previous two at Stamford Bridge.

- Have failed to score in only two of their previous 24 games at home.

- Fernando Torres is still awaiting his first Chelsea goal, failing to score in three appearances for the Blues.

Manchester United

Last 5 Matches

Premier League: Wigan 0-4 Man Utd Champions League: Marseille 0-0 Man Utd FA Cup: Man Utd 1-0 Crawley Premier League: Man Utd 2-1 Man City Premier League: Wolves 2-1 Man Utd

2010/2011 League Statistics

League Position: 1st Win-Draw-Lose: 17-9-1 (Away: 4-8-1) Goal Difference: 61-25 (Away: 22-16) Form: WWLWW (Away: WDWLW) Top Scorer: Dimitar Berbatov (19)

- Lost just one of last 17 matches in all competitions, winning 12.

- United have tasted defeat in only two of their previous 21 away matches in all comps.

- Dimitar Berbatov is the team’s leading goalscorer in the Premier League this season with 19 goals – just 4 of which came away from Old Trafford, but hasn’t scored in any of United’s previous four league games.

Premier League Meetings

Chelsea WINS: 12 Draws: 14 Manchester United WINS: 10

Previous 10 League Meetings

2009/2010: Man Utd 1-2 Chelsea 2009/2010: Chelsea 1-0 Man Utd 2008/2009: Man Utd 3-0 Chelsea 2008/2009: Chelsea 1-1 Man Utd 2007/2008: Chelsea 2-1 Man Utd 2007/2008: Man Utd 2-0 Chelsea 2006/2007: Chelsea 0-0 Man Utd 2006/2007: Man Utd 1-1 Chelsea 2005/2006: Chelsea 3-0 Man Utd 2005/2006: Man Utd 1-0 Chelsea

- Chelsea haven’t lost a Premiership clash at home to United in nine years, unbeaten in the previous eight at Stamford Bridge.

- Furthermore, the Blues have kept five clean sheets in the last seven encounters in West London; Ji-Sung Park and Wayne Rooney to only two United players to have scored at the Bridge in a league contest for over seven years.

- Carlo Ancelotti’s men also won both encounters in the Premiership last term, winning 1-0 at home and 2-1 at Old Trafford.

Match Prediction: Chelsea to WIN – 2.20 PaddyPower

Although their main objective has been and gone, the Blues helpless with regards to defending the title they won for the first time in four years last season, there’s still the small matter of securing a top-four finish, as failure to qualify for the Champions League is an unthinkable scenario for a club with the most expensive wage bill in the Premier League.

I don’t doubt for one minute that United will be fired up for this game, but their application in matches outside of Manchester has been very poor this season. Chelsea, meanwhile, do have to recover from back-to-back home defeats but invariably their vintage stuff comes at Stamford Bridge, and where they’ve not tasted defeat in this fixture for nine years. Quite simply, the Blues never fail to turn up whenever United stroll into West London, and with Tuesday’s encounter almost a do or die situation, surely Carlo’s men will step up to the plate for a change and raise their game in a game which, were they to win, would give the entire squad a massive lift ahead of a crucial last-third of the season.

Injuries also dent United’s chances of obtaining a positive outcome, while the fact they’ve only plundered two goals away from home in fixtures against side currently situated in the top half of the table, with both those strikes coming in a 2-2 draw with Bolton, the Reds failing to score at Man City, Tottenham and Sunderland, is only further strong evidence to back up my case that United are vulnerable heading down to the West of London.

Value Bet: Fernando Torres First Goalscorer – 6.50 SportingBet

After failing to score in his first three appearances as a Chelsea player, the Spaniard on the receiving end of stinging criticism from all quarters of the media, it would be typical for him to open his account against the Red Devils. El Nino has three goals in his last four matches with United, so he does have past history when it comes to locating the back of Edwin Van der Saar’s net.

Match Odds:

Chelsea – 2.20 PaddyPower Draw – 3.30 Bet365 Manchester United – 3.75 Betfred

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